Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, said Wednesday that he still thinks the central bank will first hike short-term interest rates in the second half of 2015.I am not convinced. Six years after the great mortgage fraud recession, we are still sitting at ZIRP. It seems more obvious in hindsight that we are following Japan's path of ZIRP forever. Why do I think that? At least four reasons...
1. The world is awash in overcapacity. Where is the demand for expansion that would require raising interest rates?
2. With 17+ trillion in debt to roll over forever, can the US government afford higher interest rates?
3. With housing still in a weak recovery and plenty of houses left over from the crash, can the housing market afford higher interest rates?
4. With official inflation below the Fed target of 2%, why would the Fed raise rates?
What might change these conditions?
1. A world war that destroys a lot of manufacturing and service capacity. I hope not!
2. A huge government surplus that is used to pay down the debt. I doubt it.
3. Razing millions of existing homes. Not likely.
4. An unexpected spike of inflation or loss of faith in US currency. With real median family incomes still declining, inflation looks like a low risk. A loss of faith in US currency, maybe, but I hope not since that will usher in many worse things than a rate hike.
