Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Added FRB G19 Consumer Credit

Added Federal Reserve Board G19 Release on Consumer Credit (Current).

Tracking total consumer credit will give us some indication of how the overall economy is fairing. Credit destruction is a drag on GDP and deflationary.

Updated Zero Hedge link and RSS

Zero Hedge just changed to a stand alone domain with a new content management system, and I have updated the RSS feed accordingly.

The new fav icon is a zero with a capital H inside making a nice Omega symbol. Well chosen.

Keep punching the world in the face, Tyler.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Added "News from 1930"

This is a fun site that posts news from the WSJ on the current date in 1930.

The economic headlines have interesting parallels.

"Consensus that business will improve seasonally in fall, but while optimists expect improvement to continue through winter, conservative authorities expect another slowdown in winter, and sustained upturn not until spring of 1931, and therefore continue to advise selling stocks on rallies and waiting for breaks to buy.

Reported industrial earnings so far have been considerably better than expected."

It seems recovery is always just around the corner.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Chapter 9 -- I hear the train coming

The Bond Tangent has an excellent backgrounder on Municipal Bankruptcy.

Jefferson County, Alabama is on the brink, a couple of California cities have already filed for Chapter 9, and I expect many more if the state "borrows" billions from counties and cities to fill its own budget hole.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Added UEMPMED, Median Duration of Unemployment

The St. Louis Fed publishes UEMPMED, the Median Duration of Unemployment.

If you lose your job now, chances are you will be unemployed for about 18 weeks. This is a record and far above any recession on record back to 1968 when it was first tracked.

Many people are going beyond 27 weeks and running out of state benefits. Due to the stimulus, the Federal government then kicks in for another 6 months in most cases. Still, that kind of extended unemployment not only wrecks your financial situation, it wrecks your self confidence and promotes underemployment. On the other hand, underemployment is better than no employment.