The above chart shows 10-year treasury bond yields for the US, Japan, and Germany through the end of 2013 (the last values FRED has for Germany). The downward trend continued through 2014 and this morning, the German 10-year bond yield dropped under 1%.
What seems clear is that massive government debts lead to falling and flatlining interest rates. QE doesn't help because it suppresses rates through central bank purchases. Ending QE doesn't help because then the underlying macro weakness manifests a pent up deflationary wave. Current policies of round robin central bank QE are not working to ignite inflation and only add to the massive debt burdens. As Illusion of Prosperity has been saying for a long time, it is only getting harder to make money from money. Dr. Lacy Hunt from Hoisington Management cited numerous academic studies showing the impact of high levels of debt on growth. The most reliable and unbiased sources I can find don't see sustained rising rates or growth in the foreseeable future.
It is possible that some new policy might break this cycle. A true central bank helicopter money drop should theoretically create a broad increase in consumption in real goods and services and not just financial products. A fiscal money drop similar to what George W. Bush tried in 2008 should have the same kind of effect but with the additional negative effect of increased debt for funding. There are political and legal issues with either of these policies that may prevent them from even being tried.
So far, Bernanke's famous paper describing how he would prevent "it" from happening here has not worked. At best, "it" has been temporarily delayed, but "it" is still out there and "it" is winning.
