Friday, December 15, 2023

Going Long

Made some big moves in retirement accounts in the last couple of months. The boldest, and luckiest, was going 100% SP500 in one of my accounts at the end of October. Stocks have had a giddy run since then. Gave me the vapors. In January, I will reallocate that back to a more reasonable mix.

In my other account, I started nibbling on EDV a month ago as the inflation related data started to show real signs of cooling. This week, the Fed all but declared victory by suggesting rate cuts could happen next year. That ignited another boom in all assets. I started to flesh out my bond ladder again in the 2-3 year range with treasury notes, added more EDV, and also picked up some TLT. I expect my bond weighting to be slightly heavier next year compared to 2023.

Corporate bonds have been an anomoly this year. New issues for investment grade bonds are usually at a slight premium over treasuries but that hasn't been the case in a while. Most of the stuff I see from AAA to A is trading at a lower yield than treasuries of the same duration. I still have one corporate issue on my ladder, but it will roll off in 2026. The premium may be back by then.