The shape of the elephant

The story of the blind men and an elephant is apropos of economics and markets.

The story of the blind men and an elephant originated in India. In various versions of the tale, a group of blind men (or men in the dark) touch an elephant to learn what it is like. Each one touches a different part, but only one part, such as the side or the tusk. They then compare notes on what they felt, and learn they are in complete disagreement. The story is used to indicate that reality may be viewed differently depending upon one's perspective, suggesting that what seems an absolute truth may be relative due to the deceptive nature of half-truths.

Several years ago, I began an intensive, focused (my wife says this is the only way I know how to do things) examination of money, economics, and markets. Only in the last few months have I begun to feel like I can see the silhouette of elephant.

It will always be a little fuzzy because it never sits still, always moving. The strategy I have evolved combines my own reading, research, and statistics with the opinions, research, and statistics or many other blind men whose opinions I trust.

Unfortunately, the blind men in power, who have the best vantage point -- those in the Federal Reserve, the Department of Treasury, some academics, the mainstream press, and Wall Street analysts -- are so often wrong that they are not reliable.

There are very good reasons why they are so often wrong, some innocent, some not. I did not come to this conclusion quickly or intentionally, but through countless hours of study and comparing ideas, statements, and predictions with unfolding events.

The blind men and women I rely on to help me see the elephant are scattered throughout history and the world. Some are living and some are not. The truth is out there, just not in plain sight.