Monday, September 5, 2011

Why $2K - M1 and M2 vs gold price

(Hat tip JD from Calculated Risk for the Why $2K title hilarious)
It has been a while since I compared M1 and M2 to the gold price.
M1 has started to go vertical. I can only speculate why. Maybe people are cashing in investments to have more ready cash available. The vertical nature of M2 supports that idea. A surge in both measurements could be explained by liquidation of stocks, bonds, and other investments, but I am only guessing what is happening.
The historic low for M1/gold price was 0.45 that occurred at the peak gold price on January 21, 1980.
The current M1 ratio is 1.16.
The historic low (in my spreadsheet) for M2/gold price was 2.40 in July 1980.
The current M2 ratio is 5.24.


I expected the current ratios to be lower due to the rise in gold prices, but I did not expect the dramatic rise in M1 and M2.

Since money supply is not tied to anything tangible and money is created mostly by typing into computer accounts at commercial banks and the Fed, does it even make sense to call it money supply? I've heard suggestions that "Number Supply" is a more accurate term for dollars in existence instead of money supply. Perhaps the Fed will create more numbers in their computers after their September meeting. Are you ready for Why $2K?

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