Thursday, December 4, 2014

What if we priced truth in gold?

The FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) blog had a post this morning titled "What if we priced food in gold?".


There are several problems with the premise and conclusion, but what interests me more is what signal the Fed is trying to send with this post. Why does the Fed feel compelled to make a point about gold price fluctuations when gold has not been used as currency in the US for 81 years? Has the Fed been flooded with emails asking why we can't use gold to buy groceries? It seems out of the blue.

Let's look at the retail price of bread in New York, NY in dollars using FRED's data. I used all of the available data which runs from 1913 to 1943.



There were some big monthly swings in price. You must account for the supply and demand of bread along with the supply and demand of dollars with the active continuous intervention in the market in both the supply and price of dollars (something the Fed lists as a plus to price stability). For even more instability, let's check out the median price of a new home in US dollars from 1963 to present. This one looks like Mr. Toads Wild Ride!


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