Wednesday, September 16, 2015

How to make money from the Fed’s interest-rate decision

Marketwatch is back with more sure thing investment advice. I noticed they left off the "Opinion" part of the title in the fluffy headline at the top of the home page. The gist is right in the first paragraph...
Making money from the Fed’s interest-rate meeting this week should be easy: Just do the opposite of what most investors do immediately after the decision is announced.
Genius! Who would ever have thought of that? Wait, someone else probably already thought of that, especially now that it is the top story on the home page of Marketwatch.

Wall Street: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and find out who is right... and who is dead.

Investor: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

Wall Street: You've made your decision then?

Investor: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.

Wall Street: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

Investor: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?

Wall Street: Australia.

Investor: Yes, Australia. And you must have suspected I would have known the powder's origin, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.
Wall Street: You're just stalling now.

Investor: You'd like to think that, wouldn't you? You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you could've put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

Wall Street: You're trying to trick me into giving away something. It won't work.

Investor: IT HAS WORKED! YOU'VE GIVEN EVERYTHING AWAY! I KNOW WHERE THE POISON IS!

Wall Street: Then make your choice.

Investor: I will, and I choose - What in the world can that be?

Wall Street: [Investor gestures up and away from the table. Wall Street looks. Investor swaps the goblets]
Wall Street: What? Where? I don't see anything.

Investor: Well, I - I could have sworn I saw something. No matter. First, let's drink. Me from my glass, and you from yours.

Wall Street, Investor: [Investor and the Wall Street drink]
Wall Street: You guessed wrong.

Investor: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...
Investor: [Investor stops suddenly, his smile frozen on his face and falls to the ground dead]

Buttercup: And to think, all that time it was your cup that was poisoned.
Wall Street: They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

2 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Stagflationary Mark,

      If I can work Princess Bride sideways into anything, I tend to do it.

      Delete