Thursday, December 6, 2018

3s-5s inversion 2s-10s on the watch list

I mentioned a possible inversion this year back in January: "I'll be looking to see if we have any curve inversion as rates move up.".

And here we are with the 3 year note (2.81) yielding more than the 5 year (2.79) . The classic inversion is the 2 year (2.80) and 10 year (2.863). That's pretty close and a reliable recession indicator, although there is usually a long lag time, sometimes up to 2 years. The Fed's December rate decision will be very telling. If they continue to hike and also stay on course with quantitative tightening (not rolling their treasuries and/or MBS), it could be a bumpy ride for stocks in 2019.

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