The Hoisington Investment Group publishes a quarterly review and outlook.
The outlook has not changed much from Q32009, with a strong case made for continued drops in money supply, credit, and asset prices. They recommend US long bonds to take advantage of disinflation (or even deflation).
What remains a mystery is under what circumstances a lack of foreign buyers would create a huge interest rate spike. Treasury rates, especially long rates seem particularly vulnerable.
On the other hand, the dynamic that seems to be at work presently is Fed monetization that is feeding banks, who recycle that money not into loans, but into stocks, bonds, and commodities. The Fed is threatening to withdraw support of the mortgage market, which could pull a lot of money and leverage out of the system. This would tend to push rates up, but could also spur a flight to safety in Treasuries. I'm not sure how the dynamic is going to play out.
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