Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Subjective Invective v.2

Geithner Says World in Better Position to Handle Oil-Price Jump

“The economy is in a much stronger position to handle” rising oil prices, Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things.”

I wonder what he ate at that Bloomberg Breakfast? Geithner believes our economic Central Planners can handle whatever happens with oil prices.

The core of the American financial system is in a much stronger position than it was before the crisis,” he said. “We’re way ahead of any other major economy.”

That statement is a head scratcher. Let's look at a few macro readings to compare the before and after picture. For the before, I'll November 2007 since the recession officially began in December 2007.

Unemployment (from bls.gov)
Nov 2007: 4.7%, unemployed persons 7.2 million
Jan 2011: 9.0%, unemployed persons 13.9 million

Oil Price
Nov 2007: 95.93
Feb 2011: 99.67

Real GDP (annual rate, 2011 dollars, bea.gov, bls.gov)
Nov 2007: $14,834
Feb 2011: $14,870

Federal Debt (treasurydirect.gov)
Nov 2007: $9.080 trillion
Feb 2011: $14.124 trillion

Dollar Index
Nov 2007: 76.80
Feb 2011: 77.77

Fed Funds Rate (newyorkfed.org)
Nov 2007: 4.59%
Feb 2011: 0.15%

Case-Schiller House Price Index
Nov 2007: 179
Dec 2010: 131

Which of the above indicators shows that the "core of the American financial system is in a much stronger position"?

Maybe he means that hundreds of banks have failed each year since 2007 with almost 1,000 more on the FDIC watch list?

Maybe he means that two of the big three automakers already have their bankruptcy behind them?

Maybe he is talking about the nearly 10% (of GDP) structural deficit the government is running each year?

Maybe by "core" he means his personal friends.

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