Friday, October 28, 2011

Mean vs Median unemployment


source: St. Louis Fed (UEMPMEAN, UEMPMED)

The mean duration of unemployment set another new record in September of 40.5 weeks. The median has been in a tight range the last few months, but inched up in September to 22.2 weeks. While the median has dropped from the peak, it is still at levels much worse than the 1980s recessions and worse than any recession since tracking started in the 1960s.

The story is with the still rising mean. There are millions of people who want to work but had their livelihood destroyed in the 2008 recession. Many may never be employed again -- have become unemployable. Their long term benefits may have run out and they may be stuck trying to get by until they can collect Social Security. It cries out for a new Work Progress Administration. In general, I am not in favor of Keynesian policies, as practiced by D.C. (as opposed to my understanding of the original idea). However, in this case, I think it makes sense. An equivalent funding of a new WPA using the same percent of GDP as in 1939 would cost about 1 trillion a year. The devil would be in the details of executing such a program without horrific waste.

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