This is the same data from 2013 as the previous post, just with a 2nd order polynomial trend line channel. The channel is very thin here, and it could break either way, but the trend in both channels is up. (hat tip to Stagflationary Mark for the XL pointers on the channel)
It certainly has an upside down parabolic look to it. That's okay though. Just pull out the rose-colored glasses and flip the chart upside down! ;)
ReplyDeleteStagflationary Mark,
DeleteLet's see what happens next quarter. No one is talking about the volatility that usually happens during a Fed chairperson transition. Recent history suggests financial turmoil, but maybe Yellen is so much like Bernanke that the transition will be smooth. Of course, we are probably at the end of a business cycle as well.
Of course, we are probably at the end of a business cycle as well.
Delete10 years from now we'll be looking back with laughter that we both still believed in the business cycle at a time when the Fed permanently put a stop to them.
Or...
We'll be laughing in a gallows humor sort of way at the folly of man as we restock our bunkers and I become even more permabearish than I already am.
Tough call! (Okay, maybe not really.)
If we go 10 years without a recession, I will marvel at how "recession" was defined. Did the USSR have any recessions in the 30 years before it collapsed, or did it just not admit it had any recessions?
DeleteDespite several terrible unemployment indicators like median duration, the U-3 has declined dramatically and will take a big plunge when 1.3 million on emergency unemployment are booted out of the work force. It is very misleading, but just one way the government has defined away recessions.