The Fed smoothed recession probabilities chart underwent a dramatic time travel revision, now showing that it forecasted the coming COVID-19 recession well in advance. On March 19, I posted about the model showing a 2% chance of recession. As late as early May, it was still showing a 2% chance of recession. Now, it has been updated to show a growing chance of recession as early as December, 2019. WTF? It now shows:
Dec: 9.43%
Jan: 17.9%
Feb: 32.5%
Mar: 100%
This is completely fabricated, made up, rear view mirror broken model horseshit.
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