Saturday, November 30, 2013

Median Duration of Unemployment Turns Up


source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED)

After peaking in June, 2010 at 24.8 weeks, the median duration of unemployment appears to be in a bottoming process. The low was 15.7 weeks in July, 2013 and it has not approached that level over the last three months. Zooming in on 2013 makes it more clear.


Red line is the moving average, green line is the upper trend

The median needs to drop below the upper trend line again. Outside of recessions, the median duration is typically below 8.0 weeks. A rising median duration is a seriously bad sign for the economy, indicating a recession 6 out of the last 6 times.

5 comments:

  1. Beware the median!

    A 19-year-old from Ohio drove his Pontiac Firebird past a cop at over 100mph. He drifts into the median, hits the guard rail, jumps his car into the air and smashes into a bridge.

    Yikes. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stagflationary Mark,

      Reminds me of MF Global. Drove their business past regulators at 100mph and smashed into a bridge loan.

      Delete
    2. It was a bridge too far underwater.

      A Bridge Too Far

      We shall seize the bridges - it's all a question of bridges - with thunderclap surprise, and hold them until they can be securitized.

      Okay, okay. Maybe that's not the exact quote. I modernized it.

      Delete
  2. Imagine if we still counted the people we've thrown off the back of the formerly 99 week, now 70 something week soon to be shorter bus.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rob Dawg,

      No kidding! Median duration makes the unemployment rate misleading at best.

      Delete