Thursday, March 21, 2019

Inversions out to 7 years, 2s-10s still haven't broken

The one month T-bill is paying 2.51%. That is better than anything else on the curve out to 10 years at 2.54%. The 7 year note is paying 2.44% We are still teasing the 2-10 inversion with a spread of 13 basis points, but so far, the recession indicator is holding. Since the 3rd quarter last year, the Fed has done almost a 180 on forward guidance. They eliminated rate increases for 2019 and plan to end the balance sheet run off in September. They are following the Bank of Japan script after the Japanese housing bust, but with better stock market results. Chairman Powell said in his conference yesterday that he didn't really pay much attention to the equity markets, but I don't know what else could have spooked him. Other major indicators have only slowed a little. I remain on inversion watch.