The total number of people on SNAP has started to decline and the percentage of the US population receiving food stamp benefits appears to have peaked at 15.2% in March, 2013. Since then, it has declined to 14.7%. I don't look at data with a bullish bias, but this is a positive development. It is still very high by historical standards, but this is the first significant reversal in the SNAP program since the recession.
As I look at the annual data...
ReplyDeleteThe participation fell each year from 1981 to 1988. That's 7 years. A recession hit and reversed the trend.
The participation fell each year from 1994 to 2000. That's 6 years. A recession hit and reversed the trend.
The participation fell from 2006 to 2007. That's 1 year. A recession hit and reversed the trend.
7 -> 6 -> 1 -> ?
I hope history will show that I was just being alarmist. :(
Stagflationary Mark,
DeleteIt is hard to say if this trend will continue for very long. There are a lot of warning signs in earnings, corporate profits, margin debt, housing, and retail sales. If we do have another recession soon, the positive trend will surely end and go the other way. I was just surprised that it reversed before they cut benefits back. There is not much positive in the statistics I track, so I'll take this one, however brief.